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Modest GoC Underperformance With Key BOS/CSCE Surveys Later

  • GoCs hvae nudged To modest underperformance to Tsys since open (2YY -3.7bp vs -4.8bp Tsys).
  • BoC Macklem late Friday agreed that undertightening poses the greater risk, rates need to go higher with no clear turning point in underlying inflation and a weaker CAD meaning rates have more work to do.
  • Relative market moves likely limited ahead of key BOS/CSCE surveys at 1030ET, with Macklem specifically noting inflation expectations as a key determinant of how high rates must go.

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