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AUSSIE BONDS: Modestly Cheaper As Tariff Talk Pressures Global Yields Higher

AUSSIE BONDS
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ACGBs (YM -1.0 & XM -3.0) are weaker with global bonds following Trump tariff headlines. In addition to the 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico, Trump also mentioned he will impose tariffs on BRICS if they look to replace the USD in international trade.

  • Cash US tsys are cheaper following Trump tariff headlines, with the 3yr underperforming, up 3bps at 4.27%. The 10yr is +2bps at 4.54%.
  • Focus also turns to the Fed coming out of the media Blackout and next week's key CPI & PPI inflation metrics ahead of the headline Employment data for January on Friday.
  • Cash ACGBs are 1-3bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -12bps.
  • Swap rates are 1-2bps higher.
  • The bills strip is flat to -3 across contracts.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps firmer across meetings today. Nevertheless, a 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced for April (134%), with the probability of a February cut at 90% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
  • On Monday, the local calendar will see Retail Sales, Building Approvals, CoreLogic Home Values, S&P Global PMI Mfg, Melbourne Institute Inflation and ANZ-Indeed Job Advertisements.
  • A new 21 March 2036 Treasury Bond is planned to be issued via syndication in the week beginning 3 February 2025 (subject to market conditions). The Joint Lead Managers are: Barrenjoey Markets Pty Ltd; Commonwealth Bank of Australia; National Australia Bank Limited; and UBS AG, Australia Branch.
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ACGBs (YM -1.0 & XM -3.0) are weaker with global bonds following Trump tariff headlines. In addition to the 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico, Trump also mentioned he will impose tariffs on BRICS if they look to replace the USD in international trade.

  • Cash US tsys are cheaper following Trump tariff headlines, with the 3yr underperforming, up 3bps at 4.27%. The 10yr is +2bps at 4.54%.
  • Focus also turns to the Fed coming out of the media Blackout and next week's key CPI & PPI inflation metrics ahead of the headline Employment data for January on Friday.
  • Cash ACGBs are 1-3bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -12bps.
  • Swap rates are 1-2bps higher.
  • The bills strip is flat to -3 across contracts.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps firmer across meetings today. Nevertheless, a 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced for April (134%), with the probability of a February cut at 90% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
  • On Monday, the local calendar will see Retail Sales, Building Approvals, CoreLogic Home Values, S&P Global PMI Mfg, Melbourne Institute Inflation and ANZ-Indeed Job Advertisements.
  • A new 21 March 2036 Treasury Bond is planned to be issued via syndication in the week beginning 3 February 2025 (subject to market conditions). The Joint Lead Managers are: Barrenjoey Markets Pty Ltd; Commonwealth Bank of Australia; National Australia Bank Limited; and UBS AG, Australia Branch.