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Modestly Richer Following RBNZ But Rangebound

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trade 1-2.5bp richer across the curve, aided by a dovish RBNZ and more recently some softer Eurozone confidence readings.
  • With the roll nearly complete, TYM4 holds to narrow ranges, trading at the day's high of 110-08 but firmly within yesterday’s range. Trend conditions are seen bearish with support at 109-25+ (Feb 23 low).
  • Data focus is firmly on the second Q4 release for GDP and PCE inflation, with potentially larger revisions for PCE inflation after annual CPI revisions earlier this month. Attention then shifts to Fedspeak early in the afternoon, although corporate earnings either side of the cash session will provide additional interest.
  • Data: Weekly MBA mortgage data (0700ET), GDP/PCE 2nd Q4 release (0830ET), Goods trade balance Jan adv (0830ET), Retail/wholesale inventories Jan/Jan P (0830ET)
  • Fedspeak: Bostic (1200ET), Collins (1215ET, incl text) and NY Fed’s Williams (1245ET, incl text) – see STIR bullet for details.
  • No coupon Tsy issuance after a front-loaded start to the week with 2s (0.4bp tail), 5s (0.8bp tail) and 7s (0.3bp stop).
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $60B 17W Bill auction (1130ET)
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