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Morgan Stanley Month End JGB Extension Estimates

JGBS

"We expect the 1y+ JGB index to extend by 0.021y in September, compared to an average month’s extension range of ~0.02-0.06y. A total of ~¥10.9 trillion of issuance will affect the extension and ¥3 trillion worth of JGBs will be reinvested."


For the JGB index, our calculations are based on index rules of widely followed indices, meaning extensions take place one month in advance of a higher redemption month, i.e., March, June, September, and December. Thus, extensions are likely to be higher in February, May, September, and November. Additionally, new issues get added to the index at the end of next month."

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