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Free AccessMorgan Stanley on BCCh: Risk of Sharper Hike On Table
- According to Morgan Stanley economists, higher-than-expected core inflation and still-strong growth should prompt the BCCh to keep the 125bp pace for the January 26 decision, with the risk of a sharper 150bp hike on the table.
- This is in line with market pricing. A front-loaded pattern should remain with a 100bp hike in March, 50bp hike in May, and a final 25bp hike in June.
- Although inflation continues to trend higher, the economy is set to shift into a lower gear throughout this year. As a result, inflation expectations should be close to peaking, and MS expect them start to adjust back toward the 3% y/y target as the growth slowdown settles in, a story which should begin in 2Q22.
- Chile rates momentum has started to decelerate relative to US rates momentum as inflation expectations begin to settle in and as the market starts to price in a cutting cycle in Chile, while continuing to price in a rate-hiking cycle in the US.
- In addition, a reduction in policy uncertainty from a more moderate cabinet in the incoming administration should also benefit local rates in the coming months.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.