Most USD/Asia Pairs Lower, CNH Gains Slow As Equities Stabilize

Dips in USD/CNH and USD/KRW have been supported so far today. The better HK/China trend has stalled somewhat today curbing yuan gains. The USD is generally weaker though against the SEA currencies, with THB, PHP and IDR the better performers in spot and NDF terms. Still to come is the BoT decision, with no change expected. Tomorrow, we have China Jan inflation data, along with the RBI decision. We expect the RBI to be on hold.

• USD/CNH broke under 7.1900 in early trade, aided by a firmer equity open, particularly in Hong Kong. The PBoCs announcement of yuan debt sales in HK later in Feb likely aided CNH at the margins as well. However, this marked the low for the session (7.1888), as we climbed back to 7.2050 this afternoon. The equity rebound has run out steam with for HK and mainland shares, with the market potentially waiting for more details around support policies/rescue plans.
• 1 month USD/KRW was heavy in early trade, with won sentiment aided by broader USD weakness and onshore equity market gains. Offshore investors have purchased over $200mn of local shares today. However, after getting to lows of 1320.70 we have turned back higher, back to 1325/26, little changed for the session. Higher USD/CNH levels likely seeing some spill over to CNH.
• USD/THB gaped lower at the open, getting to lows of 35.45, but there hasn't been much follow through as markets await the BoT meeting outcome later. The pair was last near 35.50, still around 0.50% stronger in baht terms for the session largely thanks to weaker USD trends more broadly. For USD/THB, the 20-day EMA isn't too far from current spot levels (last around 35.42). The 200-day sits further south at 35.24. On the topside, recent highs rest at 35.83.• The upcoming BoT meeting will be eyed both for the outcome (no change is expected from us or the consensus) and the BoT tone and forecast outlook.
• USD/IDR sits lower, back under 15700, while the 1 month NDF is near 15695, both benchmarks around 0.30% stronger in rupiah terms for the session so far. This keeps us within recent ranges. Recent lows in USD/IDR spot came in at 15644. Some calmness to the US yield backdrop has likely aided IDR sentiment, while regional equity gains have mostly been positive.
• It has been a similar backdrop for USD/PHP, which sits back near 56.00 and around 0.35% stronger in PHP terms. We aren't too far off the simple 200-day MA (near 55.96).