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ASIA FX: Most USD/Asia Pairs Higher, THB Outperforming Though

ASIA FX
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As some markets return from recent LNY breaks, the bias for the most part is a stronger USD backdrop. A firmer USD backdrop over the past week, coupled with near term tariff risks is weighing. THB is an exception though. 

  • USD/KRW is up 1.65%, the pair last near 1455 and closing in on pre inauguration levels around 1460. The local stock bourse is off over 1% amid recent tech equity wobbles (with a firmer US tech equity futures backdrop not helping at this stage).
  • USD/MYR spot is back above 4.4100, although still well below earlier Jan highs above 4.5000.
  • USD/IDR is also climbing higher, last back above 16300. Earlier Jan highs were around 16385, so not too far away. This may draw a response from the authorities though. USD/PHP is more steady, last in the 58.35/40 range.
  • USD/THB is down through, generally bucking the stronger USD trend (see the chart below). The pair was last 33.60/65, up around 0.30% in baht terms. Recent lows at 33.60 aren't too far away.
  • Baht is now tracking as the strongest performer in Jan in the EM Asia FX space. Less exposure to tariff threats/risks (at least at this stage) is likely helping, while gold has also hit fresh record highs. Positives around tourism inflows may also be helping from a FX flow standpoint.
  • We have Thailand IP figures coming up soon, while later on Dec trade and current account figures are out. 

Fig 1: USD/THB & Broader USD Trends (BBDXY Index) 

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As some markets return from recent LNY breaks, the bias for the most part is a stronger USD backdrop. A firmer USD backdrop over the past week, coupled with near term tariff risks is weighing. THB is an exception though. 

  • USD/KRW is up 1.65%, the pair last near 1455 and closing in on pre inauguration levels around 1460. The local stock bourse is off over 1% amid recent tech equity wobbles (with a firmer US tech equity futures backdrop not helping at this stage).
  • USD/MYR spot is back above 4.4100, although still well below earlier Jan highs above 4.5000.
  • USD/IDR is also climbing higher, last back above 16300. Earlier Jan highs were around 16385, so not too far away. This may draw a response from the authorities though. USD/PHP is more steady, last in the 58.35/40 range.
  • USD/THB is down through, generally bucking the stronger USD trend (see the chart below). The pair was last 33.60/65, up around 0.30% in baht terms. Recent lows at 33.60 aren't too far away.
  • Baht is now tracking as the strongest performer in Jan in the EM Asia FX space. Less exposure to tariff threats/risks (at least at this stage) is likely helping, while gold has also hit fresh record highs. Positives around tourism inflows may also be helping from a FX flow standpoint.
  • We have Thailand IP figures coming up soon, while later on Dec trade and current account figures are out. 

Fig 1: USD/THB & Broader USD Trends (BBDXY Index) 

Keep reading...Show less