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POLAND: MPC's Duda & Janczyk Suggest There May Be Room For Rate Cuts In 2H25

POLAND
PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market News
  • Two Monetary Policy Council (MPC) members who have not made any public comments on monetary policy in the past couple of months spoke yesterday, signalling that they see some room for monetary easing in 2H2025:
    • Iwona Duda told Interia that "in an optimistic scenario, assuming a significant dissipation of other risks to the sustainable return to the inflation target, in my opinion, there may be some room for small interest-rate cuts in the longer term, closer to the end of the year." The discussion on monetary easing could start already in March, but it will be the July inflation projection that will supply crucial information on price dynamics. In Duda's view, the Council could cut rates by 25bp increments, but she didn't want to speculate on their terminal level.
    • Wieslaw Janczyk said that a debate on 50-100bp worth of rate cuts in 2H2025 could still be warranted, reaffirming his views expressed in November. Janczyk said that the March inflation projection will provide "important information" about the impact of anti-inflationary shields and regulated prices, but also pointed to the "long-lasting, strong effect of high real interest rates," which can justify rate cuts later this year.
  • A narrow majority of economists surveyed by Parkiet and Rzeczpospolita said that the MPC should cut rates in 1H2025, although some said that monetary policy was too loose. Meanwhile, a compilation of guidance from MPC members put together by Pekao analysts suggested that consensus in the rate-setting panel has shifted to 2H2025.
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  • Two Monetary Policy Council (MPC) members who have not made any public comments on monetary policy in the past couple of months spoke yesterday, signalling that they see some room for monetary easing in 2H2025:
    • Iwona Duda told Interia that "in an optimistic scenario, assuming a significant dissipation of other risks to the sustainable return to the inflation target, in my opinion, there may be some room for small interest-rate cuts in the longer term, closer to the end of the year." The discussion on monetary easing could start already in March, but it will be the July inflation projection that will supply crucial information on price dynamics. In Duda's view, the Council could cut rates by 25bp increments, but she didn't want to speculate on their terminal level.
    • Wieslaw Janczyk said that a debate on 50-100bp worth of rate cuts in 2H2025 could still be warranted, reaffirming his views expressed in November. Janczyk said that the March inflation projection will provide "important information" about the impact of anti-inflationary shields and regulated prices, but also pointed to the "long-lasting, strong effect of high real interest rates," which can justify rate cuts later this year.
  • A narrow majority of economists surveyed by Parkiet and Rzeczpospolita said that the MPC should cut rates in 1H2025, although some said that monetary policy was too loose. Meanwhile, a compilation of guidance from MPC members put together by Pekao analysts suggested that consensus in the rate-setting panel has shifted to 2H2025.