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US VIEW: MUFG rates strategist John Herrmann eyed "likely outcomes" at 2pm FOMC
Mtg as his models "forecasts for the FOMC's Press Statement announcement and SEP
- 1) A 25 bps hike to 1.25% to 1.50% for the range of the federal funds trgt
- 2) One dissenter (Kashkari) possibly more (eg, Evans or Brainard),
- 3) "A more upbeat assessment of GDP growth, consumer spending, business
investment spending and payroll growth,"
- 4) "Risks to the outlk characterized as "roughly balanced" or "nearly
balanced" - possibly simply "balanced,"
- 5) Hermmann expects on SEP Projections: "U3 unemployment rate of 3.8% in 2019
and 4.0% in 2019," "GDP growth of +2.60% for 2017, +2.60% for 2018, +2.20% in
2019 and +2.00% in 2020," "PCE inflation of +1.7% in 2017, +1.8% in 2018, +1.90%
- "Median" interest rates of 3 hikes in 2018, 2 hikes in 2019, one hike in 2020
and a 2.75% terminal rate."
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