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Muted Reaction To The Weekend’s Middle East Events

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM flat & XM flat) are flat after Sydney trading resumed after Friday’s Australia Day holiday. With the domestic calendar empty today, the focus has been abroad following the weekend’s events in the Middle East. Nevertheless, the bond market's reaction has so far been fairly muted, with cash US tsys dealing ~1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session.

  • Cash ACGBs are 2-4bps richer relative to Thursday’s close, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 1bp wider at +9bps.
  • Swap rates are 1-3bps lower, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
  • The bills strip is little changed, with pricing flat to +2.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps softer across meetings, with December leading. A cumulative 42bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Dec retail sales are out tomorrow. The main focus will however be Wednesday's CPI print for Q4, which comes before next week's RBA meeting.
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