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MXN CFTC Positioning Data Indicates Bearish Shift

MEXICO
  • The poor US jobs report was enough to initiate a fresh move in USDMXN sub 20.00 and close the week around 19.90. Marginal USD weakness has extended to start the week and the Peso sees small gains (+0.2%).
  • According to the latest data from CFTC, investors turned net short on the Mexican peso once again, after briefly trimming bearish positions and going net long on the currency in late April.
    • Data indicated positioning was short MXN to the tune of 4,446 contracts in the week ending May 4 vs long 960 contracts on April 27.
    • Leveraged funds and institutional investors both reduced their bullish peso positions for the first time in multiple weeks.
  • This comes as markets turn their focus to a Banxico rate decision, due Thursday. Analysts are in consensus that the overnight rate will be kept unchanged at 4.00%, following the unanimous hold in March. Headline inflation rose to 6.08% on Friday and continues to place pressure on the MPC, despite maintaining a bearish tone in the minutes from the March meeting.
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