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MXN Unchanged Amid Holiday-Thinned Trade, Banxico Decision Thursday

MEXICO
  • USDMXN is consolidating on Monday as the US holiday leaves the likelihood of substantial across the region low. The downtrend remains intact and last week’s breach of 17.0507, the Apr 29 2016 low, reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend. Further out, scope is seen for a move towards 16.9791 and 16.7758, the 1.618 and 1.764 projections of the Jun 2 - Mar 9 - Mar 20 price swing.
  • April retail sales will cross the wires tomorrow and then attention will turn to bi-weekly CPI data and the Banxico decision on Thursday. With the latest central bank rhetoric clearly stating that rates will be left on hold for the coming meetings, CPI data and Banxico’s forecasts within the statement will be scrutinised in an attempt to assess when potential easing could begin, either later this year or in early 2024.

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