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NAB Note AUD/USD Is Well Below Fair Value Estimate, Even After Mark Lower
NAB note that their “AUD/USD model estimate endured a sharp decline during September, with all three factors in our model contributing to its decline.”
- “The model estimate fell by almost six cents to $0.6840 in September, with the increase in market risk aversion the largest detractor, subtracting just under 3 cents from the model estimate. AU/U.S. rate differentials deducted over 2 cents, while commodities took around 0.8c off.”
- “Notwithstanding the sharp decline during the month, our fair value model is still suggesting AUD/USD is extremely undervalued. AUD/USD ended the month at $0.64, 4.4 cents below our model estimate.”
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.