NAB/SEEK Employment Report: SEEK Job Ads Now More Than 20% Off Their Peak

The latest NAB/SEEK report notes that “SEEK Job Ads fell 2.6% in December, its seventh consecutive month of decline, with the level of ads now 21.1% below their May 2022 peak. That represents a rapid normalisation in job advertising with that normalisation most concentrated in Sydney and Melbourne. Overall, the level of job advertising remains elevated, still some 34% above pre-pandemic levels."

• “What is driving the decline in job advertising? It is likely a combination of normalising labour supply as net migration lifts (the working age population 15 years plus increased by 417k over the year to November 2022, compared to 104k in the year to November 2021; note it was 333k in year to November 2019), a slowing of hiring as the rapid reopening recovery fades, fewer people working fewer hours due to illness, and in some industries an outlook for slowing in activity as tighter financial conditions start to bite.”
• “While the ongoing decline in job advertising is consistent with some softening in the labour market, we do not expect an imminent turn higher in the unemployment rate as overall labour demand signals remain robust. Looking forward, as the pandemic-rebound slows and as activity cools more widely in response to the rapid tightening in rates, NAB forecasts the unemployment to move higher to 4% by the end of 2023.”