NAB write "profits data adds downside.....>

AUSTRALIA: NAB write "profits data adds downside risk to our Q4 GDP forecast of

0.4% q/q, surprising the market with a meek print of 0.8% q/q versus consensus

of 3% q/q. Further, inventories ticked down 0.2% q/q, equivalent to a flat

contribution to quarterly GDP growth (after accounting for revisions), while

markets and NAB were looking for a 0.1ppt contribution. These data will be

little comfort to the RBA, its optimistic 0.6% q/q, 2.8% y/y forecast for Q4 GDP

is looking increasingly out of reach. Revisions also reveal that non-mining

profits growth was weaker throughout the second half of 2018 than previously

published, now basically flat in Q2 and Q3, before the recent decline in Q4."