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NATGAS: Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Falls

NATGAS
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TTF continues the decline seen in recent days with the forecast of warm weather in the second half of October adding to a wider energy market pullback yesterday as Middle East geopolitical risk premiums soften.

  • TTF NOV 24 down 0.8% at 38.62€/MWh
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to drop back below normal in the coming days, but the cold will be fairly short lived with above normal expected again from mid-month.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated at 308.3mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of 50.5mcm/d today amid unplanned outages at Troll and Gullfaks but falling to 28.6mcm/d on Oct. 12.
  • European gas storage was up to 94.61% full on Oct. 7, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 91.2% as small net injections continue.
  • Ukraine has reiterated that it will not forge any further deals with Russia’s Gazprom to pump gas to Europe in 2025, but despite “rumours and suggestions”, the prospects for non-Gazprom flows are increasingly unlikely, analysts told Montel.
  • The looming end of Russian transit flows via Ukraine could trigger some heightened activity o the EU’s joint gas-buying platform, AggregateEU, analysts told Montel, but any increase is likely to be negligible.
  • LNG stockpiles held by Japanese utilities rose 1.51% w/w on Oct. 6 to 2.02m tons to follow the trend seen this time last year, according to data released by the trade ministry. Storage has recovered from the lowest since April seen on Sept. 22.
  • Brazil’s weekly LNG imports surged to the highest since November 2021 at nearly 250k tons, according to Bloomberg ship-tracking.
  • Chevron’s Leviathan gas rig operator near Israel's coast, announced that the emergency flare was lit on Wednesday morning following an operational event.
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TTF continues the decline seen in recent days with the forecast of warm weather in the second half of October adding to a wider energy market pullback yesterday as Middle East geopolitical risk premiums soften.

  • TTF NOV 24 down 0.8% at 38.62€/MWh
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to drop back below normal in the coming days, but the cold will be fairly short lived with above normal expected again from mid-month.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated at 308.3mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of 50.5mcm/d today amid unplanned outages at Troll and Gullfaks but falling to 28.6mcm/d on Oct. 12.
  • European gas storage was up to 94.61% full on Oct. 7, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 91.2% as small net injections continue.
  • Ukraine has reiterated that it will not forge any further deals with Russia’s Gazprom to pump gas to Europe in 2025, but despite “rumours and suggestions”, the prospects for non-Gazprom flows are increasingly unlikely, analysts told Montel.
  • The looming end of Russian transit flows via Ukraine could trigger some heightened activity o the EU’s joint gas-buying platform, AggregateEU, analysts told Montel, but any increase is likely to be negligible.
  • LNG stockpiles held by Japanese utilities rose 1.51% w/w on Oct. 6 to 2.02m tons to follow the trend seen this time last year, according to data released by the trade ministry. Storage has recovered from the lowest since April seen on Sept. 22.
  • Brazil’s weekly LNG imports surged to the highest since November 2021 at nearly 250k tons, according to Bloomberg ship-tracking.
  • Chevron’s Leviathan gas rig operator near Israel's coast, announced that the emergency flare was lit on Wednesday morning following an operational event.