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NATGAS: TTF Could Surge to €55/MWh on a Harsh Winter: SEB

NATGAS

A particularly harsh winter could cause a European TTF gas price surge up to €55/MWh or higher according to SEB cited by Montel.

  • The recent move lower in front-month prices is “giving the impression that the EU is well-prepared for winter.” Storage levels could quickly fall with a “harsh winter” amid competition for LNG supplies from Asia.
  • A mild winter could see prices stabilise at around €35/MWh, in line with 2024 expectations.
  • Winter prices will remain influenced by weather and geopolitics, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East.
  • Front month could increase €8/MWh from its previous forecast to €38/MWh in 2025 with 2026 at €34/MWh when the global liquefaction capacity starts increasing faster. Tight market conditions are expected to persist until 2027 due to delays in LNG projects.
  • Forward prices for JKM and TTF suggested northeast Asia would remain more profitable for LNG cargoes than Europe in the near term.
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