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Natixis: Pay Feb ‘25 ECB OIS

STIR

Natixis recommend paying Feb ‘25 ECB-dated OIS at 2.80%, targeting a move to 3.15%, with a stop set at 2.70%.

  • They reason that “that the EUR curve is very influenced by U.S. recession fears and a weakening of the U.S. labour market. However, we don’t see a strong weakening of the Eurozone labour market, and the ECB is still expecting high wage growth until year-end.”
  • Looking ahead, they note that “hawkish members in the Governing Council will be speaking next week and could remind us of the upside risks to inflation, which are not yet comforting the ECB. Core CPI will also be key.”
  • We (MNI) have previously noted that the market-implied ECB rate path is notably more dovish than the once per quarter preference that several GC members have outlined.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Homepagemarkets-real-timeEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Homepagemarkets-real-timeEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

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