Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Remains Volatile

Henry Hub has again shown volatility today. The market is struggling for clear direction as above-expectation stock draws counter milder weather and high production. Front month is down around 7.8% on the start of the week.

• US Natgas JAN 24 up 0.4% at 2.6$/mmbtu
• US Natgas JUN 24 down -0.8% at 2.59$/mmbtu
• US gas rig count: +3 to 119: Baker Hughes
• Lower 48 natural gas demand is today estimated down below normal to 83.8bcf/d according to Bloomberg driven by warm weather across much of the US.
• Temperatures are forecast to remain mostly above normal in the coming two weeks but with closer to normal expected in the south and a trend back towards normal late in the period.
• Domestic natural gas production is today estimated back up slightly to 105.2bcf/d according to Bloomberg.
• Feedgas flows to US LNG export terminals are relatively steady at 14.5bcf/d according to Bloomberg.
• Fluxys LNG is offering regasification slots at Zeebrugge LNG for Jan and Feb, according to a press release.
• European gas prices are still at risk of high volatility and spikes next year despite the gradual softening in 2023 according to Trafigura.
• EU overall gas demand remains tepid and is expected about 8% below 2022 levels in 2023 according to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Winter Outlook.
• European prompt gas prices could fall below the summer if Jan and Feb are mild and drive a contango to minimise storage withdrawals in late-February and March according to ICIS.