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NBH Rate Decision in Focus with Slower Easing Pace Expected

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  • Higher motor fuel prices have added 0.6-0.7ppts to headline inflation, the National Economy Ministry said in statement this morning. The ministry noted that prices at the pump were up 11pc for petrol and 13pc for diesel compared to a year earlier. The ministry pointed to government measures, including regulated utilities prices, mandatory discounts at supermarkets and a food price monitoring platform, that have brought inflation down.
  • The NBH is widely expected to moderate the pace of rate cuts from 75 to 50bps due to a substantial deterioration in global risk sentiment since the previous rate-setting meeting and associated HUF weakness. Among sell-side, all of the analyst views we have previewed in the following document are expecting a 50bp cut, which would take the base rate to 7.75%. The decision will be made at 1300BST, with the policy statement released at 1400BST. See the full preview, with a summary of sell-side analyst views, here.
  • Looking ahead to later in the week, average gross wage data for February (Est: +14.3% y/y; Prior: +14.7%) and unemployment rate data for March (Est: 4.6%; Prior: 4.6%) will cross on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
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  • Higher motor fuel prices have added 0.6-0.7ppts to headline inflation, the National Economy Ministry said in statement this morning. The ministry noted that prices at the pump were up 11pc for petrol and 13pc for diesel compared to a year earlier. The ministry pointed to government measures, including regulated utilities prices, mandatory discounts at supermarkets and a food price monitoring platform, that have brought inflation down.
  • The NBH is widely expected to moderate the pace of rate cuts from 75 to 50bps due to a substantial deterioration in global risk sentiment since the previous rate-setting meeting and associated HUF weakness. Among sell-side, all of the analyst views we have previewed in the following document are expecting a 50bp cut, which would take the base rate to 7.75%. The decision will be made at 1300BST, with the policy statement released at 1400BST. See the full preview, with a summary of sell-side analyst views, here.
  • Looking ahead to later in the week, average gross wage data for February (Est: +14.3% y/y; Prior: +14.7%) and unemployment rate data for March (Est: 4.6%; Prior: 4.6%) will cross on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.