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NBP Governor Glapinski Sees Economic Slowdown Curbing Inflation

POLAND

Summary of comments from NBP Governor Glapinski’s press conference following yesterday's decision to keep rates unchanged (via BBG):

  • Polish economic slowdown to curb price pressure
  • Polish inflation may peak in Jan/Feb around 19%
  • Expects single-digit Polish inflation in 4Q 2023, CPI to fall to target in 2025
  • Fast return of CPI to target would be costly
  • Polish rate-hike cycle is still on pause, not ended
  • Zloty FX fluctuations in past year were not worrying
  • We favor zloty strengthening
EUR/PLN now through yesterday's lows of 4.6835 and eyeing the Tuesday and multi-month low of 4.6690 - levels last seen in mid-August.

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