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NBP To Maintain Stance With Another 50bps Hike

POLAND

Executive Summary:

  • NBP is likely to hike its policy rate by 50bps to 2.75%
  • NBP Governor Glapinski commented in a recent interview that the central bank is welcoming stronger zloty
  • With political risk premium being now trimmed, a strengthening currency reduces the pressure on NBP policymakers to surprise the market with more aggressive hikes

Link to full preview:

MNI Poland CB Preview Feb 8.pdf


The National Bank of Poland is likely to keep the pace of its tightening cycle and hike the policy rate by 50bps on February 8th to continue its combat against inflation. This move will increase the policy rate to 2.75%, its highest level since June 2013. In order to anchor inflation expectations through the exchange rate mechanism, CEE central banks are likely to increase the policy rate above the neutral rate in H1 2022 before gradually decrease it towards ‘equilibrium’ as inflationary pressures start to ease.


Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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