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Free AccessNear Term Crude Option Skew Turning Less Bearish Again
The near term WTI crude option put skew has resumed the narrowing trend up to the least bullish since November 2022. The second month 25 delta call-put skew is up to -1.3% from -2.9% on 26 Sep and above the recent -1.7% from mid Sep.
- The gains come as the future market remains strong with the ongoing drawdown in global inventories and with some analysts highlighting the risk of OPEC+ cuts extended into next year. Optimism of a demand boost from the upcoming China Golden Week holiday period is also supportive despite uncertainty over future policy from major central banks.
- The second month Brent skew has recovered from -3.05$/bl on 26 Sep up to -1.9% today but below a peak of -0.9% on 18 Sep.
- The recent less bearish trend in the skew in the Dec24 contracts has stalled with both Brent and WTI seeing a slight pull back in the skew this week. Brent Dec24 25 delta call-put skew is currently at -6.9% while the Dec24 WTI skew is around -7.3%.
- Crude second month implied volatility continues to edge higher in September with Brent up to 30.2% with WTI up to 31.4%. Crude markets saw high trading volumes yesterday with Brent aggregate volumes up at 1.73m compared to an average of 1.1m so far in Sep. WTI was up at 1.31m compared to an average of 0.97m from 1-26 Sep.
- Brent NOV 23 down -0.6% at 95.95$/bbl
- WTI NOV 23 down -0.5% at 93.19$/bbl
Source: Bloomberg
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