New working paper from San Francisco Fed........>

FED: New working paper from San Francisco Fed states ominously: "A return to

pre-virus unemployment levels by sometime in 2021 would require a pace of hiring

activity that is much more rapid than recorded during any past recovery, which

seems unlikely given the severity of disruptions to employment relationships,

business ties to customers, and financial markets." 

Other interesting points: 

* Unemployment at end-2020 projected at 3.9% (with unprecedented hiring bounce)

and 16.7% (using historic dynamics). End-2021 projected to be 5.9% and 3.5%,

respectively. 

* BLS's U-5 measure of underemployment and employment-to-population ratio are

important to watch, as the official rate will be held down by those laid off but

not looking for work.