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Free AccessNew Zealand Jobless Rate Down to 4.8% as Participation Falls
-- Employed Growth Down 0.2% q/q
WELLINGTON (MNI) - Household Labor-Force Survey data for the second quarter
published by Statistics New Zealand on Wednesday:
Q2 Q1
----------------------------------------------------
(%) (%)
Unemployment Rate 4.8 4.9
MNI Consensus 4.8 (Range 4.7 to 5.1)
Employed Q/Q -0.2 +1.2
MNI Consensus +0.8(Range +0.7 to +0.9)
Participation Rate 70.0 70.6
MNI Consensus 70.7 (Range 70.6 to 70.7)
FACTORS: New Zealand's unemployment rate in the second quarter fell to its
lowest since the December 2008 quarter owing to a drop in the participation rate
which offset a fall in employed people. This was the first quarter since
September 2015 when employment growth was below population growth -- which rose
0.5% q/q. The participation rate fell to its lowest since the second quarter of
last year. The fall in the jobless rate came mainly from 10,000 fewer unemployed
women -- which pushed the female unemployment rate to 4.9% or its lowest since
the March 2009 quarter. Male unemployment rose 0.5 points to 4.7%.
The labor underutilization rate fell 0.5 points to 11.8% -- representing
13,000 fewer underutilized people. The labor-cost index rose 0.4% q/q and 1.7%
y/y as a result of a 1.9% rise in public-sector wages and a 1.6% rise in
private-sector wages. For the fourth consecutive quarter private-sector wage
inflation was lower than that of the public sector.
TAKEAWAY: The jobless rate of 4.8% matched a MNI median forecast but the
outcome was thanks to a fall in the labor-participation rate rather than a rise
in employed. The details of the survey were, therefore, less positive. From a
Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy point of view the most important
data was the labor-cost index which rose just 1.7% q/q and was mostly a result
of a rise in public-sector wages. The data are supportive of the RBNZ leaving
the official cash rate on hold for longer - with some risk to the downside.
--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MANDA$,MANDS$,MMNRB$,M$A$$$,M$N$$$,MT$$$$]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.