MNI BRIEF: China CPI Expected To Rise Moderately - NBS

MNI BRIEF: China Aug Output, Investment Hit Lowest Of The Year

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY138.7 Bln via OMO Saturday

CHINA AUG INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT +4.5% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +4.6% Y/Y: NBS

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY138.7 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS SAT

MNI BRIEF: Turkish Central Bank Sees Further Disinflation

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Slovakia Auction, BoE APF on Monday

MNI BRIEF: China Aug M1 Drops Further To Hit Record Low

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

UK: Week Ahead

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No Recession Here, Move Along

US TSYS

Tsy futures still weaker across the board, but stable after the bell, yield curves flatter but off lows (2s10s -1.728 at 26.625 currently vs. 23.778 low).

  • Random volatility/thin liquidity contributing to the whippy trade. "People are trading terminal fed funds rates like they know what is going to happen....they don't," one desk offered. Carry over month end rebalancing played a part in this morning's bounce.
  • While hawkish BOC annc may have been a factor, data more likely trigger for sell-off: Much stronger than expected May ISM Manufacturing Index of 56.1 vs. 54.5 exp while the Prices Paid component is 82.2 vs. 80.5; April reading of Construction Spending is +0.2 vs. +0.5% exp.
    • FED'S BARKIN ('24 voter) SAYS HE DOESN'T SEE A RECESSION IN THE DATA - DATA SIGNALS THAT CONSUMER SPENDING IS HOLDING UP - bbg
    • DALY ('24 voter): DON'T SEE A RECESSION, IT'S NOT MY MODAL OUTLOOK - bbg
  • Focus on Thu: ADP Private Employ (+300k est vs. +247k prior), Wkly Claims (210k) -- NFP on Friday.
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