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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessNomura N.Amer hd of rate research....>
US TSYS/SUPPLY: Nomura N.Amer hd of rate research George Goncalves projects
$650B US budget deficit in FY2018, $850B in FY2019. "To finance the fiscal
stimulus as well as Fed's balance-sheet UST rolloffs, we have been advocating an
across-the-board approach where auction sizes on all tenors increase. The aim
would be to keep WAMs increasing (a potentially introduction of a new maturity
points in the long-end would help here too)."
- He thinks "the sooner Treasury decides and kicks off the process of auction
size increases, the more gradually the sizes can grow throughout 2018-19 to
avoid disruptions." TBAC at Aug. refunding indicated Tsy "wld make a decision
around its issuance strategy 'as early as the Nov. refunding but no later than"
1Q 2018 so in Aug, he was "optimistic that the Tsy wd start with small auction
sizes, e.g., $1B increase in the Nov. refunding. We now think that is unlikely,
given the lack of clarity on tax reform and the looming debt ceiling deadline
early Dec." His base case is "no changes on cpn auctn sizes" to be unveiled this
qtr, but "Tsy may keep options open for small auctn size increases intra-qrtr
(eg 2s, 3s) esp.if debt ceiling gets resolved and tax discussion" progresses.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.