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Non-Food Price Inflation Well Contained

INDONESIA

January CPI was close to Bloomberg consensus with headline slightly higher at 2.6% but in line with December and core slightly lower at 1.7% down from 1.8%. Bank Indonesia’s (BI) target band has shifted down 0.5pp for 2024 to 1.5%-3.5% but inflation is well within the lower range.

  • Governor Warjiyo said that BI’s focus remains on rupiah and price stability. Inflation looked well contained at the start of the year. USDIDR rose 2.4% during January and BI intervened towards the end of the month. The pair has come down again this week, but remains above where BI would like to see it. Warjiyo also said that the rate cut window is in the second half of the year, once the rupiah has strengthened.
  • Food prices remain problematic with rice up 15.7% y/y and the index for volatile food up 7.2% y/y from 6.7% in December.
  • Most categories aside from food are seeing inflation rates below 2% though. State administered price inflation was steady at 1.7% y/y and utilities rose only 0.6% y/y, helped by subsidies.
Indonesia CPI y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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