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POWER: Nordic Forward Curve to Possibly Trade in Red

POWER
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The Nordic forward curve may face downward pressure -once it becomes liquid – amid losses in TTF and neigbouring Germany. Above seasonal temperature forecasts in theregion starting from 21 February until at least 6 March could also reduce demand and ease pressure on hydro stocks. However, downward revisions of the hydro balances in Norway and Sweden are supportive.

  • Nordic Base Power MAR 25 settled down 1.8% at 38.6 EUR/MWh on 19 Feb.
  • France Base Power MAR 25 down 4% at 71.23 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 1.5% at 87.3 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 1.2% at 73.14 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas MAR 25 down 2% at 47.305 EUR/MWh
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected to be lower over 23 Feb-6 March, with downward revisions seen as around 450GWh from previous forecasts. The balance is anticipated at +7.77TWh on 6 March compared to +7.98TWh previously estimated.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +4.02TWh on 6 March compared to +4.35TWh in the previous estimate.
  • Nordic hydropower reserves fell at their fastest pace this year to reach just above 60% of capacity to be at 60.6%, or 76.98TWh at the end of week 7. Stocks were pressured amid stronger demand and lower precipitation in the region.
  • But reserves could slow their pace of decline this week amid warming temperatures and higher hydro balances towards March.
  • Rainfall in the Nordics will be on a general upward trend throughout the 6–10-day ECMWF forecasts, with forecasts suggesting precipitation to be relatively in line with the 30-year average.
  • Average temperatures in the region have been mostly revised up over 20-25 February and will flip above the seasonal average on 21 February and remain until 6 March.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at 2.47GW on 21 February, or an 47% load factor, up from today's 2.15GW forecast, which could place downward pressure on delivery.
  • Nordic nuclear capacity was at 100% capacity on Thursday morning, unchanged on the day, according to Bloomberg. 11 of the 11 units are still online.
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The Nordic forward curve may face downward pressure -once it becomes liquid – amid losses in TTF and neigbouring Germany. Above seasonal temperature forecasts in theregion starting from 21 February until at least 6 March could also reduce demand and ease pressure on hydro stocks. However, downward revisions of the hydro balances in Norway and Sweden are supportive.

  • Nordic Base Power MAR 25 settled down 1.8% at 38.6 EUR/MWh on 19 Feb.
  • France Base Power MAR 25 down 4% at 71.23 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 1.5% at 87.3 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 1.2% at 73.14 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas MAR 25 down 2% at 47.305 EUR/MWh
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected to be lower over 23 Feb-6 March, with downward revisions seen as around 450GWh from previous forecasts. The balance is anticipated at +7.77TWh on 6 March compared to +7.98TWh previously estimated.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +4.02TWh on 6 March compared to +4.35TWh in the previous estimate.
  • Nordic hydropower reserves fell at their fastest pace this year to reach just above 60% of capacity to be at 60.6%, or 76.98TWh at the end of week 7. Stocks were pressured amid stronger demand and lower precipitation in the region.
  • But reserves could slow their pace of decline this week amid warming temperatures and higher hydro balances towards March.
  • Rainfall in the Nordics will be on a general upward trend throughout the 6–10-day ECMWF forecasts, with forecasts suggesting precipitation to be relatively in line with the 30-year average.
  • Average temperatures in the region have been mostly revised up over 20-25 February and will flip above the seasonal average on 21 February and remain until 6 March.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at 2.47GW on 21 February, or an 47% load factor, up from today's 2.15GW forecast, which could place downward pressure on delivery.
  • Nordic nuclear capacity was at 100% capacity on Thursday morning, unchanged on the day, according to Bloomberg. 11 of the 11 units are still online.