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POWER: Nordic Hydro Stocks Drop for 5th Week, Likely to Continue Fall in Week 6

POWER
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Nordic hydropower reserves increased the rate of their fall for the second consecutive week in week 5 to be at 67.3% capacity, 85.50TWh as higher demand and below normal precipitation dented stocks. Stocks could continue to move downward this week amid the continued delayed start-up of the 1.17GW Forsmark 3, a weakened hydro balance and cooler temps.

  • Stocks dropped by 3 percentage points on the week in week 5 compared to a 2.2-point fall at the end of week 4.
  • Stocks narrowed their surplus on the year to 19.2 points compared to 21.3 points the week prior.
  • However, precipitation in the Nordic region remained firm on the week to a total of 12.9mm from 12.25mn in week 4 but lower than the 30-year average of about 20mm.
  • But strong demand on the week placed sustained downward pressure on stocks, with Norwegian demand averaging about 19.37GW from 19.47GW in week 4. Swedish demand averaged around 18.72GW from 18.59GW the week prior.
  • However, nuclear generation in the region picked up on the week, with Swedish output at around 6.04GW from 5.82GW the week prior and Finnish generation at 4.19GW from 4.04GW.
  • Nuclear generation increased amid the short-lived return of the 1.17GW Forsmark 3 nuke on 1 February.
  • However, the unit will be fully offline on 5 February at 18:00 CET until 7 February 12:00 CET compared to 5 February at 20:00 CET until 7 February 08:00CET.
  • And full power is still expected to be reached on 10 February.
  • Hydro levels narrowed to a 9.5-point surplus to the 19-year average from a 10.3-point surplus in week 4.
  • Swedish reserves moved downward to be at 70.6% capacity from 73.1% capacity in week 4, while Norwegian reserves dropped to 67.1% capacity from 70.4% in week 4.
  • And Finnish hydro stocks followed the same trend, falling to 50.3% of capacity from 51.9% in week 4 and still much lower than the same week last year at 53.1%.
  • Looking ahead, the latest ECMWF suggests Norway’s and Sweden’s hydrological balance to end at +3.73TWh and +4.74TWh, respectively, on 19 February compared to +3.94TWh and +5.05TWh in the previous forecasts for the same day.
  • Rainfall in the Nordics throughout the 6-10 day ECMWF forecasts will see well below-normal precipitation at just slightly above 0mm/d- which could continue to lower flows into the reservoirs.
  • And average temperatures in the region will be on a steady decline from 5 February and are seen flipping below the norm on 14 February to reach as low as -7.5C on 19 February.






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Nordic hydropower reserves increased the rate of their fall for the second consecutive week in week 5 to be at 67.3% capacity, 85.50TWh as higher demand and below normal precipitation dented stocks. Stocks could continue to move downward this week amid the continued delayed start-up of the 1.17GW Forsmark 3, a weakened hydro balance and cooler temps.

  • Stocks dropped by 3 percentage points on the week in week 5 compared to a 2.2-point fall at the end of week 4.
  • Stocks narrowed their surplus on the year to 19.2 points compared to 21.3 points the week prior.
  • However, precipitation in the Nordic region remained firm on the week to a total of 12.9mm from 12.25mn in week 4 but lower than the 30-year average of about 20mm.
  • But strong demand on the week placed sustained downward pressure on stocks, with Norwegian demand averaging about 19.37GW from 19.47GW in week 4. Swedish demand averaged around 18.72GW from 18.59GW the week prior.
  • However, nuclear generation in the region picked up on the week, with Swedish output at around 6.04GW from 5.82GW the week prior and Finnish generation at 4.19GW from 4.04GW.
  • Nuclear generation increased amid the short-lived return of the 1.17GW Forsmark 3 nuke on 1 February.
  • However, the unit will be fully offline on 5 February at 18:00 CET until 7 February 12:00 CET compared to 5 February at 20:00 CET until 7 February 08:00CET.
  • And full power is still expected to be reached on 10 February.
  • Hydro levels narrowed to a 9.5-point surplus to the 19-year average from a 10.3-point surplus in week 4.
  • Swedish reserves moved downward to be at 70.6% capacity from 73.1% capacity in week 4, while Norwegian reserves dropped to 67.1% capacity from 70.4% in week 4.
  • And Finnish hydro stocks followed the same trend, falling to 50.3% of capacity from 51.9% in week 4 and still much lower than the same week last year at 53.1%.
  • Looking ahead, the latest ECMWF suggests Norway’s and Sweden’s hydrological balance to end at +3.73TWh and +4.74TWh, respectively, on 19 February compared to +3.94TWh and +5.05TWh in the previous forecasts for the same day.
  • Rainfall in the Nordics throughout the 6-10 day ECMWF forecasts will see well below-normal precipitation at just slightly above 0mm/d- which could continue to lower flows into the reservoirs.
  • And average temperatures in the region will be on a steady decline from 5 February and are seen flipping below the norm on 14 February to reach as low as -7.5C on 19 February.






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