POWER
Nordic hydropower reserves hit their lowest so far this year in week 6 to be at 64.4% capacity, 81.72TWh as rainfall in the region halved on the week and demand remained firm. However, strong nuclear output slowed the rate of decline.
- Stocks dropped by 2.9 percentage points on the week in week 6 compared to a 3-point fall at the end of week 5.
- Stocks widened their surplus on the year to 19.7 points compared to 19.2 points the week prior.
- However, precipitation in the Nordic region more than halved on the week to a total of 5.31mm from 12.9mn in week 5 and lower than the 30-year average of about 20mm.
- And continued firm demand on the week placed sustained downward pressure on stocks, with Norwegian demand averaging about 19.26GW from 19.37GW in week 5. Swedish demand averaged around 19.02GW from 18.72GW the week prior.
- However, nuclear generation in the region picked up on the week, easing some pressure on reservoir levels, with Swedish output at around 6.34GW from 6.04GW the week prior and Finnish generation at 4.17GW from 4.19GW.
- Nuclear generation could rise this week amid the full return of the 1.17GW Forsmark 3 on 11 February, with Nordic nuclear availability now at 100% on 12 February.
- But capacity at the 890MW Olkiluoto 1 nuke will be curtailed to 585MW until 12 February 15:15 CET compared to the same day at 13:15 CET, latest remit data show.
- Hydro levels widened to a 9.8-point surplus to the 19-year average from a 9.5-point surplus in week 5.
- Swedish reserves moved downward to be at 67.8% capacity from 70.6% capacity in week 5, while Norwegian reserves dropped to 64% capacity from 67.1% in week 5.
- And Finnish hydro stocks followed the same trend, falling to 48.4% of capacity from 50.3% in week 5 and but narrowed the deficit to the same week last year at 49.4%.
- Looking ahead, the latest ECMWF suggests Norway’s and Sweden’s hydrological balance to end at +3.06TWh and +4.32TWh, respectively, on 26 February compared to +3.22TWh and +4.47TWh in the previous forecasts for the same day.
- And precipitation in the region will see below-normal rainfall throughout the 6–10-day ECMWF forecasts – which could continue to weigh on hydro stocks.
However, average temperatures in the Nordics are now expected to begin warming up from 20 February and flip above the seasonal average on 26 February. Temperatures were mostly revised up over 12-17 February by as much as 1.4C
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