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POWER: Nordic Jan on Track to Rise On Week

POWER
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The Nordic front month could continue its three-session upward trend amid a drier outlook in Norway and Sweden, impacting their hydro balances. Price increases in German power due to sharp gains in TTF may add additional support. The contract is on track for a net gain on the week; however, it did settle around 1% lower on Thursday compared to its previous settlement last week for the same day (12 Dec).

  • Nordic Base Power JAN 25 closed up 1% at 49.75 EUR/MWh on 19 Dec
  • France Base Power JAN 25 up 3.1% at 94.95 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power JAN 25 up 2.5% at 108.56 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 up 0.9% at 68.28 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas JAN 25 up 2.6% at 44.215 EUR/MWh
  • Rotterdam Coal JAN 25 down 0.1% at 107 USD/MT
  • Norway’s hydrological balance was revised down over 21 Dec-3 Jan by around 80-800 GWh/d, with the balance ending at +11.95TWh on 3 Jan compared to +12.65TWh in the previous estimate for the same day.
  • Sweden's balance is expected to be at +4.87TWh on 3 Jan compared to +5.12TWh in previous estimates.
  • Precipitation in the Nordic region has also been revised lower over 21-24 Dec but up to 0.4mm, with the rainfall expected to be below the norm over 23-31 December – likely impacting hydro stocks.
  • But average temperatures in the Nordics are anticipated to remain above the seasonal average throughout the 6-10 day ECMWF forecasts, with temps only turning towards negative territory in early January.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at around 1.36GW, or a 26% load factor, on 21 Dec –  down from the forecast of 1.65GW today, which may support power prices. However, with a drop in demand spot costs could still be weighed down.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 87% capacity on Friday morning, down from 88% on Thursday, according to Bloomberg. 10 of 11 units are still online.
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The Nordic front month could continue its three-session upward trend amid a drier outlook in Norway and Sweden, impacting their hydro balances. Price increases in German power due to sharp gains in TTF may add additional support. The contract is on track for a net gain on the week; however, it did settle around 1% lower on Thursday compared to its previous settlement last week for the same day (12 Dec).

  • Nordic Base Power JAN 25 closed up 1% at 49.75 EUR/MWh on 19 Dec
  • France Base Power JAN 25 up 3.1% at 94.95 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power JAN 25 up 2.5% at 108.56 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 up 0.9% at 68.28 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas JAN 25 up 2.6% at 44.215 EUR/MWh
  • Rotterdam Coal JAN 25 down 0.1% at 107 USD/MT
  • Norway’s hydrological balance was revised down over 21 Dec-3 Jan by around 80-800 GWh/d, with the balance ending at +11.95TWh on 3 Jan compared to +12.65TWh in the previous estimate for the same day.
  • Sweden's balance is expected to be at +4.87TWh on 3 Jan compared to +5.12TWh in previous estimates.
  • Precipitation in the Nordic region has also been revised lower over 21-24 Dec but up to 0.4mm, with the rainfall expected to be below the norm over 23-31 December – likely impacting hydro stocks.
  • But average temperatures in the Nordics are anticipated to remain above the seasonal average throughout the 6-10 day ECMWF forecasts, with temps only turning towards negative territory in early January.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at around 1.36GW, or a 26% load factor, on 21 Dec –  down from the forecast of 1.65GW today, which may support power prices. However, with a drop in demand spot costs could still be weighed down.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 87% capacity on Friday morning, down from 88% on Thursday, according to Bloomberg. 10 of 11 units are still online.