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POWER: Nordic January Could Trade Flat on Mixed Fundamentals

POWER
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The Nordic front month could trade relatively flat amid mixed movements of the hydro balance in the region, with Norway’s edging higher, while Sweden’s is expected to drop. Loss in TTF and emissions could also add some weight. The contract is expected to expire on 23 December.

  • Nordic Base Power JAN 25 closed up 1% at 50.25 EUR/MWh on 20 December
  • France Base Power JAN 25 down 0% at 95.9 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power JAN 25 up 0.6% at 111.33 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.1% at 68.13 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas JAN 25 down 0.3% at 44.015 EUR/MWh
  • Rotterdam Coal JAN 25 up 0.5% at 107.5 USD/MT
  • Norway’s hydrological balance was revised up over 3-6 January by around 40-200 GWh/d, with the balance ending at +12.84TWh on 6 January compared to +12.66TWh in the previous estimate for the same day.
  • However, Sweden's balance is expected to be at +4.53TWh on 6 Jan compared to +4.72TWh in previous estimates.
  • Precipitation in the Nordic region has also been mostly revised lower over 23-27 Dec by up to 0.6mm, with the rainfall expected to be below the norm over 23-30 December – which may impact hydro stocks.
  • But average temperatures in the Nordics are anticipated to remain above the seasonal average until 2 January, with temps at between minus 0.62C and minus 5.4C over 1-6 January – which may spur heating demand.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at around 1.16GW, or a 22% load factor, on 24 Dec – up from the forecast of 0.803GW today, which may weigh on power prices.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 86% capacity on Monday morning, down from 87% on Friday, according to Bloomberg. 10 of 11 units are still online.
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The Nordic front month could trade relatively flat amid mixed movements of the hydro balance in the region, with Norway’s edging higher, while Sweden’s is expected to drop. Loss in TTF and emissions could also add some weight. The contract is expected to expire on 23 December.

  • Nordic Base Power JAN 25 closed up 1% at 50.25 EUR/MWh on 20 December
  • France Base Power JAN 25 down 0% at 95.9 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power JAN 25 up 0.6% at 111.33 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.1% at 68.13 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas JAN 25 down 0.3% at 44.015 EUR/MWh
  • Rotterdam Coal JAN 25 up 0.5% at 107.5 USD/MT
  • Norway’s hydrological balance was revised up over 3-6 January by around 40-200 GWh/d, with the balance ending at +12.84TWh on 6 January compared to +12.66TWh in the previous estimate for the same day.
  • However, Sweden's balance is expected to be at +4.53TWh on 6 Jan compared to +4.72TWh in previous estimates.
  • Precipitation in the Nordic region has also been mostly revised lower over 23-27 Dec by up to 0.6mm, with the rainfall expected to be below the norm over 23-30 December – which may impact hydro stocks.
  • But average temperatures in the Nordics are anticipated to remain above the seasonal average until 2 January, with temps at between minus 0.62C and minus 5.4C over 1-6 January – which may spur heating demand.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at around 1.16GW, or a 22% load factor, on 24 Dec – up from the forecast of 0.803GW today, which may weigh on power prices.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 86% capacity on Monday morning, down from 87% on Friday, according to Bloomberg. 10 of 11 units are still online.