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NWM: Core PCE Revisions Seen Spread Over Q1

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • "We assume that the upside surprises [in Q1 core PCE at 4.9% vs 4.7% expected] will turn out to be spread over the first quarter as a whole rather than concentrated just in tomorrow’s March figures."
  • That means their forecasts for the months changes "probably remain the same (with some scope for upside risk in March) at +0.3% for core PCE price index, but that the y/y pace stays a bit stickier at 4.6% (instead of slipping to 4.5% that we assumed prior to the GDP report)".
  • The monthly data for March are released tomorrow at 0830ET.
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