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NZD: NZD/USD Closes Little Changed, Remains Above 50-Day EMA

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  • NZD/USD closed Wednesday's session little changed at 0.5705, after initially trading about 0.30% lower following the RBNZ cutting rates by 50bps. The pair was able to retake the 50-Day EMA support level supporting the bullish trend the emerged last week.
  • RBNZ Gov Orr spoke earlier, where he expressed optimism about inflation being within the 1-3% target range, justifying a 50bps cut in the OCR to 3.75%. He indicated that further rate reductions are expected, aiming for an OCR around 3% by year-end, but highlighted risks like stronger-than-expected economic activity and global economic fragmentation. Orr also noted that despite not cutting rates more aggressively, the RBNZ's approach has been one of the most proactive among central banks.
  • We remain above the 50-day EMA at 0.5700, the RSI is steady 55, while the MACD indictor is printing green bars. Key levels to watch include, resistance is 0.5763 (Dec 18 highs), while 0.5786 (100-Day EMA) becomes a target. To the downside, a break back below the 50-Day EMA at 0.5700 would open a move to 0.5676 (20-day EMA) and the Feb 12 lows of 0.5600.
  • Following Wednesday's 50bps cut, RBNZ dated-OIS is pricing another 25 bps cut at the next meeting in April, followed by about a 75% cut of another 25bps cut in May.
  • The NZ-US 2yr swap saw a 10bps swing on Wednesday, to closed at -68bps
  • Expiries today include 0.5660 (NZD369.3m), 0.5665 (NZD329.4m), 0.5600 (NZD316.2m)
  • Calendar is empty today, tomorrow we get Trade Balance data
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  • NZD/USD closed Wednesday's session little changed at 0.5705, after initially trading about 0.30% lower following the RBNZ cutting rates by 50bps. The pair was able to retake the 50-Day EMA support level supporting the bullish trend the emerged last week.
  • RBNZ Gov Orr spoke earlier, where he expressed optimism about inflation being within the 1-3% target range, justifying a 50bps cut in the OCR to 3.75%. He indicated that further rate reductions are expected, aiming for an OCR around 3% by year-end, but highlighted risks like stronger-than-expected economic activity and global economic fragmentation. Orr also noted that despite not cutting rates more aggressively, the RBNZ's approach has been one of the most proactive among central banks.
  • We remain above the 50-day EMA at 0.5700, the RSI is steady 55, while the MACD indictor is printing green bars. Key levels to watch include, resistance is 0.5763 (Dec 18 highs), while 0.5786 (100-Day EMA) becomes a target. To the downside, a break back below the 50-Day EMA at 0.5700 would open a move to 0.5676 (20-day EMA) and the Feb 12 lows of 0.5600.
  • Following Wednesday's 50bps cut, RBNZ dated-OIS is pricing another 25 bps cut at the next meeting in April, followed by about a 75% cut of another 25bps cut in May.
  • The NZ-US 2yr swap saw a 10bps swing on Wednesday, to closed at -68bps
  • Expiries today include 0.5660 (NZD369.3m), 0.5665 (NZD329.4m), 0.5600 (NZD316.2m)
  • Calendar is empty today, tomorrow we get Trade Balance data