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NZD: NZD/USD Erases Tuesday's Gains, Falls Below 20-Day EMA

NZD
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  • NZD/USD erased Tuesday's gains to closed down 0.25% at 0.5640. The pair briefly sold off as US CPI came in stronger-than-expected, we touched 0.5600 before a quick reversal to end up right back at the levels prior to the data release, US yields rose 8-9bps. Trump has been talking to Putin, where he mentioned the leaders agreed to begin talks on ending the war in Ukraine, which has seen some support for high beta currencies, the JPY dropped and is the worst performing currency following those headlines.
  • We now trade below the 20-day EMA, initial support is at 0.5600 (Feb 12 lows). To the upside, key resistance is seen at 0.5697 (50-day EMA).
  • US CPI came in at 3% vs 2.9% y/y expected, m/m was 0.5% vs 0.3% expected. The higher-than-expected M/M core / supercore CPI readings reflected stronger pressures in all major sub-categories in January.
  • New Zealand Treasury reported an operating deficit of NZ$3.50b for the six months to Dec 31, NZ$384m narrower than the December forecast. Core Crown tax revenue exceeded projections by NZ$229m, with sales tax ~NZ$300m above forecast due to stronger consumption and residential investment. Net core Crown debt stood at 44.1% of GDP, slightly below the 44.2% projection. The OBEGAL deficit was NZ$4.57b, NZ$307m narrower than expected.
  • No large nearby strikes Thurs. Upcoming notable strikes: 0.5550 (NZD350.9m Feb. 18), 0.5580 (NZD308.9m Feb. 14)
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is holding steady across the next few meeting, The market is pricing in a 88% chance of a 50bps cut for Feb, another 25bps cut priced for April.
  • Later today we have 2Yr Inflation Expectation, while the market will likely turn its attention to US PPI later tonight.
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  • NZD/USD erased Tuesday's gains to closed down 0.25% at 0.5640. The pair briefly sold off as US CPI came in stronger-than-expected, we touched 0.5600 before a quick reversal to end up right back at the levels prior to the data release, US yields rose 8-9bps. Trump has been talking to Putin, where he mentioned the leaders agreed to begin talks on ending the war in Ukraine, which has seen some support for high beta currencies, the JPY dropped and is the worst performing currency following those headlines.
  • We now trade below the 20-day EMA, initial support is at 0.5600 (Feb 12 lows). To the upside, key resistance is seen at 0.5697 (50-day EMA).
  • US CPI came in at 3% vs 2.9% y/y expected, m/m was 0.5% vs 0.3% expected. The higher-than-expected M/M core / supercore CPI readings reflected stronger pressures in all major sub-categories in January.
  • New Zealand Treasury reported an operating deficit of NZ$3.50b for the six months to Dec 31, NZ$384m narrower than the December forecast. Core Crown tax revenue exceeded projections by NZ$229m, with sales tax ~NZ$300m above forecast due to stronger consumption and residential investment. Net core Crown debt stood at 44.1% of GDP, slightly below the 44.2% projection. The OBEGAL deficit was NZ$4.57b, NZ$307m narrower than expected.
  • No large nearby strikes Thurs. Upcoming notable strikes: 0.5550 (NZD350.9m Feb. 18), 0.5580 (NZD308.9m Feb. 14)
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is holding steady across the next few meeting, The market is pricing in a 88% chance of a 50bps cut for Feb, another 25bps cut priced for April.
  • Later today we have 2Yr Inflation Expectation, while the market will likely turn its attention to US PPI later tonight.