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NZD: NZD/USD Rallies, Breaks Back Above The 50-Day EMA

NZD
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  • NZD/USD closed 0.85% higher on Friday, breaking back above 0.5700 to finish the week at 0.5725, the highest weekly close since mid December.
  • The close back above key resistance of 50-day EMA and 0.5700, the first time trading above the 50pday EMA since early October, signals a change in momentum, the RSI is at its highest levels for the year, while the MACD indictor is printing green bars. Key levels to watch include, resistance is 0.5763 (Dec 18 highs), while 0.5790 (100-Day EMA) become a target. To the downside, a hold above the 50-Day EMA at 0.5700 is important, a break here would open a move to 0.5668 (20-day EMA)
  • The RBNZ Shadow Board recommends a 50bps OCR cut this week, citing contained inflation, weak economic activity, and a soft labor market, according to NZIER. Members see the OCR at 2.75%-3.5% in a year, advocating a cautious pace of easing. Some expressed concerns over inflationary risks from US fiscal and trade policies and a weaker NZD, while two members favored faster cuts due to weak domestic conditions.
  • RBNZ dated OIS is pricing in a 90% chance of a 50bps cut this week, with another 25bps fully priced for April and a cumulative 115bps of cut through to November 2025
  • No large nearby strikes Mon. Upcoming notable strikes: 0.5450 (NZD1.71b Feb. 19), 0.5800 (NZD864.8m Feb. 19), 0.5650 (NZD525m Feb. 19)
  • Nothing else on the calendar today, focus will turn to Wednesday when we get PPI input/output and the RBNZ rate decision
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  • NZD/USD closed 0.85% higher on Friday, breaking back above 0.5700 to finish the week at 0.5725, the highest weekly close since mid December.
  • The close back above key resistance of 50-day EMA and 0.5700, the first time trading above the 50pday EMA since early October, signals a change in momentum, the RSI is at its highest levels for the year, while the MACD indictor is printing green bars. Key levels to watch include, resistance is 0.5763 (Dec 18 highs), while 0.5790 (100-Day EMA) become a target. To the downside, a hold above the 50-Day EMA at 0.5700 is important, a break here would open a move to 0.5668 (20-day EMA)
  • The RBNZ Shadow Board recommends a 50bps OCR cut this week, citing contained inflation, weak economic activity, and a soft labor market, according to NZIER. Members see the OCR at 2.75%-3.5% in a year, advocating a cautious pace of easing. Some expressed concerns over inflationary risks from US fiscal and trade policies and a weaker NZD, while two members favored faster cuts due to weak domestic conditions.
  • RBNZ dated OIS is pricing in a 90% chance of a 50bps cut this week, with another 25bps fully priced for April and a cumulative 115bps of cut through to November 2025
  • No large nearby strikes Mon. Upcoming notable strikes: 0.5450 (NZD1.71b Feb. 19), 0.5800 (NZD864.8m Feb. 19), 0.5650 (NZD525m Feb. 19)
  • Nothing else on the calendar today, focus will turn to Wednesday when we get PPI input/output and the RBNZ rate decision