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NZGBS: Cheaper, Subdued Session For US Tsys, Infl. Expns. Due

BONDS

In local morning trade, NZGBs are 2bps cheaper after a subdued start to the week for US tsys, with many Asian markets closed for the Lunar New Year holidays and little news flow. US tsys see-sawed in narrow ranges on Monday, with modest volumes. The focus for the week is January CPI later today followed by Retail Sales on Thursday.

  • US Inflation expectations in January remained unchanged at the short- and longer-term horizons and declined slightly at the medium-term horizon, according to a New York Fed's survey of consumers. Meanwhile, consumers were more optimistic about their financial situation.
  • Decent corporate bond issuance resumed, with just over $17bn issued, generating decent two-way hedging/unwind flows.
  • Swap rates are 1-4bps higher, with the 2s10s curve steeper.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed. A cumulative easing of 49bps is priced for year-end from a peak of 5.68% versus around 100bps of easing off 5.53% at the end of January.
  • Today, the local calendar sees Inflation Expectations, ahead of REINZ House Sales, Card Spending and Food Prices tomorrow. The RBNZ Policy Decision is on 28 February.
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