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BONDS: NZGBS: Closed At Session Cheaps After Trump Tariff Talk Weighs

BONDS

NZGBs closed at the session’s worst levels, slightly cheaper with yields 1bp lower to 2bps higher. Yields had been as much as 4bps lower early in the session. 

  • With domestic data second-tier (home values and consumer confidence), the primary driver of the reversal was US tsys. Cash US tsys are cheaper following Trump tariff headlines, with the 3yr underperforming, up 3bps at 4.27%. The 10yr is +2bps at 4.54%.
  • In addition to the 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico, Trump mentioned he will impose tariffs on BRICS if they look to replace the USD in international trade.
  • Focus also turns to the Fed coming out of the media Blackout and next week's key CPI & PPI inflation metrics ahead of the headline Employment data for January on Friday.
  • The swap curve closed with a twist-steepener, with rates 1bp lower to 1bp higher.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed flat to 5bps softer across meetings. 48bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 123bps by November 2025.
  • The local calendar is empty on Monday.
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NZGBs closed at the session’s worst levels, slightly cheaper with yields 1bp lower to 2bps higher. Yields had been as much as 4bps lower early in the session. 

  • With domestic data second-tier (home values and consumer confidence), the primary driver of the reversal was US tsys. Cash US tsys are cheaper following Trump tariff headlines, with the 3yr underperforming, up 3bps at 4.27%. The 10yr is +2bps at 4.54%.
  • In addition to the 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico, Trump mentioned he will impose tariffs on BRICS if they look to replace the USD in international trade.
  • Focus also turns to the Fed coming out of the media Blackout and next week's key CPI & PPI inflation metrics ahead of the headline Employment data for January on Friday.
  • The swap curve closed with a twist-steepener, with rates 1bp lower to 1bp higher.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed flat to 5bps softer across meetings. 48bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 123bps by November 2025.
  • The local calendar is empty on Monday.