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NZGBS: Post-Budget Sell-Off Continues
NZGBs closed weaker, but above the session’s worst levels, with 2- and 10-year benchmark yields 15bp and 10bp higher respectively.
- Strong demand for the May-32 bond (cover at 5.13x) at the weekly round of NZ$400mn supply likely assisted the move away from session cheaps. The cover ratio for the May-26 bond was lower at 2.43x versus 3.46x at the last auction. The May-41 bond saw a similar cover at 2.66x.
- Nonetheless, the NZGB 2-year benchmark yield sits 28bp higher in post-Budget trading with the 10-year yield 16bp higher.
- The NZ/US 10-year yield differential is 3bp wider at +77bp, compared to around 60bp at the start of the week.
- Swap rates are 10-19bp higher with the 2s10s curve 9bp flatter.
- RBNZ dated OIS has firmed 9-29bp post-Budget across meetings with early ’24 leading. 37bp of tightening is priced for next week’s RBNZ meeting. Terminal Rate expectations lift to a new cycle high of 5.92%.
- ASB now expects a 50bp hike at next week's RBNZ policy meeting.
- The local calendar is light ahead of Wednesday’s release of Retail Sales Ex-Inflation ahead of the RBNZ policy decision on the same day.
- With the global calendar light today, the markets will be on headlines watch, particularly regarding debt ceiling negotiations.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.