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NZGBS: Richer As US Tsys Rally On Weaker Labour Market Data, Bldg Permits Due

BONDS

In local morning trade, NZGBs are 4bp richer after US tsy yield finished 5-11bp lower following weaker-than-expected labour market data. JOLTS data showed openings down more than expected to more than a two-year low. Openings have fallen for six of the past seven months. Additionally, the quit rate fell back to pre-pandemic levels.

  • Conference Board consumer confidence also printed softer than expected, including important labour market indicators. The gap between the jobs “plentiful” and jobs “hard-to-get” index fell to its lowest level since early 2021.
  • The US tsy 10-year yield was down 9 bp to 4.12%, after hitting a 16-year high of 4.35% recently.
  • Swap rates are 4bp lower, with implied swap spreads little changed.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bp softer across meetings. Terminal OCR expectations sit at 5.63%, near the lower bound of its recent range.
  • Today the local calendar sees Building Permits for July, ahead of ANZ Business Confidence tomorrow and ANZ Consumer Confidence on Friday. After falling sharply last year, the downturn in dwelling permits appears to have flattened out. This has coincided with the stabilisation in the housing house prices in recent months.
  • NZ Treasury plans four nominal bond auctions in September each offering NZ$500mn of bonds.
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