NZGBS: Richer, Outperforms The $-Bloc, Building Permits Tomorrow

NZGBs closed 2bp richer, with benchmarks just off local session bests. Without local catalysts, the direction of the local market was largely set by US tsys dealings in the Asia-Pac session.

• US tsys are 1-2bp richer across benchmarks. The curve has steepened. There has been no news of significance in the session.
• That said, NZGBs have outperformed the $-Bloc today, with the NZ-US and NZ-AU 10-year yield differentials both 2bp tighter. This move partially unwinds the underperformance seen yesterday sparked by NZ fiscal deterioration concerns. The NZ Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) is due for release on September 12.
• The International Monetary Fund has published sluggish predictions for NZ's economic growth, tipping higher inflation for longer. The paper makes for grim reading for Kiwis, already in a technical recession, without a pathway back to growth enjoyed in recent years. (See link)
• Swap rates are 4bp lower, with implied swap spreads narrower.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing is unchanged out to Apr’24 and 1-4bp softer beyond. Terminal OCR expectations sit at 5.65%.
• Tomorrow the local calendar sees Building Permits for July. On Thursday, ANZ Business Confidence is on tap, with ANZ Consumer Confidence on Friday.