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NZGBS: Subdued Open Ahead of US CPI

BONDS

A subdued open for NZGBs with the cash benchmarks 1bp cheaper after US Tsys closed modestly weaker in NY trade ahead of the release of US CPI for March and the FOMC Minutes for March today. Overall Tsy volumes were still relatively light, although slightly higher than the last couple of sessions with London back online after the extended Easter holiday. Economic data, IMF commentary and Fedspeak all failed to move the market materially.

  • Swaps open little changed, implying slightly tighter swap spreads.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bp firmer across meetings with 20bp of tightening priced for May.
  • The local calendar is slated to release March Retail Card Spending data today with a boost from high inflation and a post-cyclone rebound expected. With the data being volatile of late, the market will be hoping for some clarity on overall Q1 spending.
  • The market however is likely to remain focused on the release of US CPI (Mar) later today with an upside surprise likely increasing the odds of a 25bp hike at the May FOMC (currently priced as a 75% chance).
  • Elsewhere, RBA Deputy Governor Bullock will be taking part in the WEAI Monetary Panel (0545 BST).
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