GERMAN DATA
- Looking at an individual country split, exports to the US saw the sharpest monthly drop since May 2020, at -14.3% M/M. Note that the Bundesbank expected some reversal of inventories-driven export improvements recently ('Bundesbank Bearish on Private Consumption in Monthly Report' - MNI, Nov 19). Trade with individual countries can be volatile month-to-month. However, exports to both China and the "rest of world" category (excl. EU/US/CN) fell, indicating that October's exports weakness was quite broad based.
- Looking ahead, there appears to be little sign of an imminent revival of external demand for German products; IFO export expectations ended their 5 month downward trend in November but remained contractionary at -5.9 points (vs -6.5 Oct). IFO noted that no negative Trump effect was discernible (yet) in the data; however, note that the recent USD appreciation should facilitate German exports, partially counteracting prohibitive tariffs potentially to be introduced.
- Higher imports were driven by the EU as well as the "rest of world" category. Imports from the US saw their second consecutive fall to the lowest monthly level since April 2022.
262 words