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OECD Leading Indicators See Continued Global Slowdown, China Stabilising

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The OECD's October Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) continue to signal slowing growth across most major economies.

  • All major economy CLIs edged downwards in October, most remaining below long-term averages (exception: Japan).
  • Across major DMs, high inflation, rising interest rates and weakening equities are dragging the CLIs lower, implying slowing growth ahead in the US, UK, Canada and Euro area.
  • Emerging economies are exhibiting more mixed signs. China appears to be stabilising, boosted by stronger auto and steel production, alongside Brazil where improved share prices are elevating headline CLI.
  • India is seeing a renewed slowing in momentum due to tighter financial conditions.
  • The indices include a range of forward-looking indicators including order books, confidence indexes and interest rate levels, which signal an overall decline in growth momentum into year-end.

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The OECD's October Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) continue to signal slowing growth across most major economies.

  • All major economy CLIs edged downwards in October, most remaining below long-term averages (exception: Japan).
  • Across major DMs, high inflation, rising interest rates and weakening equities are dragging the CLIs lower, implying slowing growth ahead in the US, UK, Canada and Euro area.
  • Emerging economies are exhibiting more mixed signs. China appears to be stabilising, boosted by stronger auto and steel production, alongside Brazil where improved share prices are elevating headline CLI.
  • India is seeing a renewed slowing in momentum due to tighter financial conditions.
  • The indices include a range of forward-looking indicators including order books, confidence indexes and interest rate levels, which signal an overall decline in growth momentum into year-end.

Keep reading...Show less