February 20, 2025 11:52 GMT
US TSYS: Off Highs But 10s Still Hold FOMC Minutes Initial Gains
US TSYS
- Treasuries are off overnight highs seen in early London trade (with the pullback aided by WTI futures off lows) but 10s hold most of the rally seen on yesterday’s FOMC minutes with its surprising amount of balance sheet discussion.
- Today’s macro focus is on jobless claims, covering the February payrolls reference period for initial, before Fedspeak.
- Cash yields are 0.5bp lower (front end to belly) to 2.5bp higher (20s), with the latter underperforming after yesterday’s 20Y auction tailed by 1bp along with soft peripheral stats.
- TYH5 has eased to 109-00 for back to just 1+ higher on the day after an earlier high of 109-04+, on light volumes of 250k.
- Moving average studies point to a downtrend, with initial support at 108-04 (Feb 12 low) before 108-00 (Jan 16 low), whilst resistance is seen at the bull trigger of 110-00 (Feb 7 high).
- Data: Weekly jobless claims (0830ET), Philly Fed mfg Feb (0830ET), Leading index Jan (1000ET)
- Fedspeak: Goolsbee Q&A (0935ET), Musalem speaks to Economic Club of NY (1205ET, text + Q&A), Barr on supervision (1430ET, text + Q&A), Kugler on inflation and Phillips Curve (1700ET, text + Q&A).
- Coupon issuance: US Tsy to sell $9bn 30Y TIPS - 912810UH9 (1300ET)
- Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $85bn 4-wk bills, $80bn 8-wk bills (1130ET)
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