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Off Post-Data Cheaps After Rainbow Bridge Explosion, Pre-Thanksgiving Positioning

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trade unchanged to 3.5bp cheaper, with the day’s cheapening impetus lead by 5s as has been the case through the session.
  • They have seen a two-stage paring of earlier losses, more so at the front-end, first coinciding with the Rainbow Bridge explosion headlines before continuing after a brief pause. There could also be pre-Thanksgiving positioning at play after a sizeable sell-off following stronger than expected US data from jobless claims and U.Mich inflation expectations.
  • TYZ3 at 108-26+ is back within the day’s range off a post-data low of 108-19. The short-term trend structure remains bullish, and indeed the contract earlier touched resistance at 109-08+ (Nov 17 high) shortly ahead of lower than expected jobless claims, after which lies 109-20 (Sep 19 high). In case of a renewed turn lower, support is seen at 108-05 (50-day EMA).
  • Fed Funds implied rates have firmed to a cumulative +3bp for January, whilst cumulative cuts from current levels show the first cut in June (29bp vs 31.5bp yesterday) and 88bp of cuts to end-2024 (from 92bp).
  • US Cash Markets are closed Thursday before an early close on Friday. Futures are open until 1300ET Thursday and 1315ET Friday.
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