Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CHINA DATA
A reminder that the official October PMIs for China print tomorrow. The market looks a steady manufacturing trend, projected at 50.2, prior 50.2, with a forecast range of 49.9 to 50.6. On the non-manufacturing or services side, the market is projecting a 52.0 outcome versus 51.7 prior (forecast range is 50.5 to 52.2).
- Recall earlier this month the China Emerging Industries PMI rose further in October to 57.8 from 54.0. This bodes well for the official manufacturing index, although the beta between the two series has been fairly low in recent months.
- More broadly, China data surprises have been turning more positive. The Citi China EASI is at multi month highs (see the chart below), which is driving some sell-side names to nudge their 2023 growth forecasts higher (although the aggregate consensus is unchanged at this stage).
- An additional positive for the growth backdrop is increased government bond issuance in Q4.
- If we see any upside surprises in the PMIs tomorrow it should drive further confidence in the near term growth outlook, although China related assets in terms of FX and local equities are only modestly above recent lows.
Fig 1: Citi China EASI Versus 2023 China GDP Growth Expectations
Source: Citi/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok