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OIL: Crude Edges Nears Top of Recent Range on Macro Data and Supply Risks

OIL
BulletEnergy BulletsCommodities

Crude is trading near the top end of a $3.5/bbl range after China data today reinforced the uneven nature of the current economic backdrop, with consumer spending softer relative to industrial activity.

  • WTI has been rising faster than Brent supported by recent US macro data and a potential soft landing scenario for the US economy with US rate cuts this year a potential boost for oil demand.
    • Brent JUL 24 up 0.6% at 83.77$/bbl
    • WTI JUN 24 up 0.4% at 79.57$/bbl
    • Brent JUL 24-AUG 24 unchanged at 0.4$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.14$/bbl at 4.44$/bbl
  • The US crude inventory draw in data released earlier this week and risks to Canadian output due to wildfires are also supportive. Risk from one of the two fires threatening Fort McMurray was downgraded yesterday with wet weather helping to limit the advance.
  • Russia said that air defences shot down or jammed 102 drones overnights. A refinery in Tuapse reportedly caught fire and was extinguished while drones also stuck an oil refinery and port in Novorossiysk causing power outages.
  • Both gasoline and diesel cracks are seeing a strong end to the week with support from US macro data and EIA data showing a rise in demand for both products this week.
    • US gasoline crack up 0.8$/bbl at 28.23$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.6$/bbl at 24.26$/bbl
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Crude is trading near the top end of a $3.5/bbl range after China data today reinforced the uneven nature of the current economic backdrop, with consumer spending softer relative to industrial activity.

  • WTI has been rising faster than Brent supported by recent US macro data and a potential soft landing scenario for the US economy with US rate cuts this year a potential boost for oil demand.
    • Brent JUL 24 up 0.6% at 83.77$/bbl
    • WTI JUN 24 up 0.4% at 79.57$/bbl
    • Brent JUL 24-AUG 24 unchanged at 0.4$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.14$/bbl at 4.44$/bbl
  • The US crude inventory draw in data released earlier this week and risks to Canadian output due to wildfires are also supportive. Risk from one of the two fires threatening Fort McMurray was downgraded yesterday with wet weather helping to limit the advance.
  • Russia said that air defences shot down or jammed 102 drones overnights. A refinery in Tuapse reportedly caught fire and was extinguished while drones also stuck an oil refinery and port in Novorossiysk causing power outages.
  • Both gasoline and diesel cracks are seeing a strong end to the week with support from US macro data and EIA data showing a rise in demand for both products this week.
    • US gasoline crack up 0.8$/bbl at 28.23$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.6$/bbl at 24.26$/bbl