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Oil Demand Boosted by China Holiday and Improved US and Asia Weather: JPM

OIL

Oil demand is better than expected in the first week of February with a boost in China from the Lunar New Year holiday and with better weather in the US and Asia according to JPMorgan.

  • Oil demand rose 200kb/d above estimate by 1.9mb/d, compared with the first week of Jan according to high frequency demand indicators.
  • Global demand for the mobility fuels gasoline, on-road diesel and jet fuel rose to a 5-week high of 1.3mb/d y/y in the week to Feb 2.
  • China’s Lunar New Year will result in a four-fold increase in passenger trips during the holiday period. Trips could rise to a record 9bn during the 40-day holiday period this year compared with the 2.095bn trips last year, citing estimates from the ministry of transport. About 7.2bn of the trips are expected by road driving strong gasoline demand in February.
  • China’s air travel is expected to surge 9.8% above 2019 levels to 80m trips, citing estimates from the aviation regulator.
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